The blow to America’s industrial work force from globalization, and the sometimes xenophobia-tinged anger over trade deals that fueled a political upheaval last year, are not hard to find in southwest Indiana.
Leaving the Evansville airport, one can see a billboard to the right pointedly promising the “best real Mexican food this side of the Wall.” The hulking, empty building to the left is a former Whirlpool plant that, six years before Alcoa folded, was moved to Mexico.
As President Trump spoke approvingly of new taxes on imports in his address to Congress on Tuesday night, and as his new commerce secretary, Wilbur L. Ross, seeks to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, cities like Evansville are where the costs and benefits of those policies will be measured in paychecks, pink slips and household budgets.
It was one of the myriad Midwestern places that turned to Mr. Trump in the election after he promised a river of good jobs from more protectionist trade deals, deporting undocumented workers and cracking down on Chinese imports. Yet the economic picture here and throughout the industrial heartland is not one-dimensional.
Thousands of jobs have been lost to globalization in Evansville, the third-largest city in Indiana. But thousands more have been created by exporting products made in the region, like AstraZeneca’s diabetes drugs, Lexan plastics — used in smartphones — and Toyota S.U.V.s.
Should Mr. Trump impose steep import taxes on goods from Mexico and China, economists say it could drive other nations to raise taxes on American exports — at a cost in American jobs.
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“If he wants to start a trade war, there’ll be a negative impact on Indiana,” said Sudesh Mujumdar, chair of the economics and marketing department at the University of Southern Indiana. “You might think you’re protecting a class of workers, and end up having an impact on others.”
The complex filaments connecting average Americans to the forces of global trade can be seen in the lives of Mr. Marshall, laid off by Alcoa, and his two older brothers: Troy, 46, who works on the factory floor at Toyota in Princeton, Ind., where a map with pins in 20 countries depicts the reach of its exports; and Jeremy, 41, an elementary schoolteacher, who is struggling to maintain his perch in the middle class.
Import tariffs that might have protected Brandon’s smelting job could theoretically threaten Troy’s job at Toyota, as well as raise the living costs for Jeremy, who finds that even as a member of the white-collar middle class, he needs a second job to make ends meet.
“I’m a teacher, I’ve got a budget,” Jeremy said over dinner at Applebee’s with Brandon, while Troy was working the night shift.
Would Jeremy buy a $15 American tape measure — and would he see it as protecting his brothers’ jobs?
“I look for the best deal,” he said bluntly. “You go to Harbor Freight down the road and all their stuff comes from China. I will go there. They give you tape measures for free.”
The Marshall brothers grew up 40 minutes north of Evansville in Oakland City, Ind., the sons of Les Marshall, a coal miner who worked underground for 27 years. He died of a massive heart attack at 62, barely a year after retirement.
“He was pretty adamant about getting your education so you don’t have to work these hard, dirty hours,” Jeremy said.
Brandon got a bachelor’s degree, but hated his time working as a draftsman in an office. “I gained weight; I’d go home and be mentally stressed,” he said. “Physical labor, you may hurt muscle-wise, but you’re moving around. It’s better for you.”
When he lost his $85,000 job at the Alcoa smelter, the best work he could find paid $45,000, soldering components at a company that makes broadcast antennas. His wife, Crystal, had to go back to work filing and painting nails to help with the family’s expenses.
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Whitney Curtis for The New York Times
He has taken the lifestyle adjustment in stride. “I’m not the person to sit back and have a pity party,” he said.
There are also some benefits. He has more time for his two young children: “They were big mommy’s kids before,” he said. “Now that Dad is home more, they’ll jump on the couch next to me to watch Dad’s TV shows. If I did work 60 hours a week on night shift at Toyota, those moments wouldn’t be there.”
All three brothers voted for Mr. Trump, embracing his promises to build a wall with Mexico, run the nation as a business and rebuild American manufacturing.
The new administration’s trade policies are a work in progress. The president has said he is considering paying for a wall on the southern border by slapping a 20 percent tariff on Mexican imports. But he has yet to endorse the blanket import tax, known as “border adjustment,” that House Republicans favor as part of broad tax overhaul.
And of course Mr. Trump has waged a Twitter war to shame American companies into moving manufacturing home. In January, he threatened Toyota that if it did not close a plant it is building in Mexico, it would have to pay “a big border tax.”
In response, Toyota’s North American president, Jim Lentz, said a border tax would raise the price of every American-made vehicle — ultimately resulting in job losses in the United States — because nearly all of those domestically produced vehicles include parts made abroad.
The Toyota Highlander S.U.V., one of three models made at the Indiana factory, is a good example. Forty percent of its parts are made outside the country, according to government data. When Toyota hired 300 new workers at the plant in 2014, it said the expansion was partly because of foreign sales.
But a combination of higher costs to produce Highlanders and retaliatory tariffs that would slow exports could mean fewer workers in the Indiana factory. Troy Marshall, who is a 15-year Toyota employee, recognizes the risks of a protectionist trade policy.
“Working in manufacturing in the U.S., I understand if people aren’t buying your product then I don’t have a job,” he said.
Nonetheless, he still favors taxing foreign-made goods. He said higher consumer prices would be acceptable if they protected America’s industrial workers. Americans, he said, would learn to adjust their lifestyles.
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Whitney Curtis for The New York Times
“In my mind, it’s sort of a reset of the American economy,” Mr. Marshall said. “It’s the right thing to do. I don’t think we need all the stuff we buy.”
His attitude seems shaped by his confidence that his own job at Toyota, one of the region’s best-paying blue-collar employers, would be secure even if the plant were to shed jobs. After several promotions, he is a supervisor of quality assurance, enjoying good wages, a 401(k) plan and other benefits.
Unemployment is low in southwestern Indiana, like the Midwest in general, after a seven-year jobs expansion under President Barack Obama. Still, there are thousands fewer high-paying manufacturing jobs than a decade ago. Factory wages have fallen.
As a result, Evansville’s middle class is hollowing out. Household income is flat, compared with strong growth nationally. The dream of a comfortable life with less than a bachelor’s degree — a credential held by only one in four Indiana adults — is receding.
“That way of life has really evaporated,” said Jonathan Weinzapfel, who was Evansville’s mayor the year Whirlpool left, idling 1,100 workers.
And blue-collar workers are not the only members of the middle class being squeezed. Jeremy Marshall, who has a master’s degree and earns about $50,000 a year teaching at an elementary school, has long worked a second job — first mowing lawns, now as a home inspector.
After Indiana’s Republican legislature rolled back teachers’ bargaining rights and tied their pay to student test scores a few years ago, Jeremy said, he missed out on what otherwise would have been an automatic $12,000 raise. He said he voted for Mr. Trump, but in statewide elections he supports Democrats, who are union-friendly.
His workday is longer and more stressful than it used to be, he said. “I go home, and I’m mentally zapped. Everything’s data-driven. It’s always analyzing data, creating assessments to create more data.”
At Applebee’s, as the conversation circled around the complexities of trade, Brandon Marshall, once in favor of strict protectionism, seemed to shift his view. He considered how tariffs might strain Jeremy’s budget and threaten Troy’s job.
“It’s hard to say what would happen if we shut the borders off and had to start surviving on our own,” Brandon said.
“The thing about Trump, he never had to worry about a $15 tape measure compared to a $6 one,” he added. “He’s got good intentions. He wants to keep the jobs here. But if all those parts coming for Toyota cost more money to get here, is it going to turn jobs away in the long run?”
